ECONOMY
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How Uncertain Is the Estimated Probability of a Future Recession?
Richard Crump and Nikolay Gospodinov Since World War II, the U.S. economy has experienced twelve recessions—one every sixty-four months, on…
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Who’s Paying Those Overdraft Fees?
Gabriel Leonard, Donald Morgan, and Wilbert van der Klaauw One criticism of overdraft credit is that the fees seem borne…
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Why Does the U.S. Always Run a Trade Deficit?
Thomas Klitgaard The obvious answer to the question of why the United States runs a trade deficit is that its…
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Nonbanks and Banks: Alone or Together?
Nicola Cetorelli, Gonzalo Cisternas, and Asani Sarkar Nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) constitute a variety of entities—fintech companies, mutual funds, hedge…
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Student Loan Delinquencies Are Back, and Credit Scores Take a Tumble
Andrew F. Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Daniel Mangrum, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw This morning, the Center for Microeconomic…
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The College Economy: Educational Differences in Labor Market Outcomes
Rajashri Chakrabarti, Thu Pham, Beckett Pierce, and Maxim Pinkovskiy It is intuitive that workers with higher levels of education tend to…
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Who Finances Real Sector Lenders?
Nina Boyarchenko, Hyuntae Choi, and Leonardo Elias The modern financial system is complex, with funding flowing not just from the…
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An Interoperability Framework for Payment Systems
Jon Durfee, Michael Junho Lee, and Joseph Torregrossa Novel payment systems based on blockchain networks promise to redesign financial architecture,…
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Monetary Policy Spillovers in the Global Economy
Sushant Acharya, Ozge Akinci, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, and Paolo A. Pesenti Understanding cross-border interdependencies and inspecting the international transmission mechanism of…
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How Household Saving Affects Monetary Policy Spillovers
Sushant Acharya, Ozge Akinci, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, and Paolo A. Pesenti As covered in the first post in this series, the…
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