President Joe Biden’s 2024 Odds Lengthened by Hur Report

Posted on: February 15, 2024, 01:19h. 

Last updated on: February 15, 2024, 01:23h.

President Joe Biden’s 2024 reelection odds have lengthened considerably after a damming report from the US Justice Department’s Special Counsel’s Office was made public.

Joe Biden 2024 odds Hur report
A heated President Joe Biden delivers remarks after a special counsel report from the Justice Department labeled him as an “elderly man with a poor memory.” The Hur report has lengthened the president’s reelection odds. (Image: Getty)

It was a week ago today that Robert Hur, a former US attorney and DOJ-designated special counsel, released his report on whether Biden willfully retained and shared highly classified documents.

The documents were stored at his Delaware estate while a private citizen after Biden’s time as vice president ended in January 2017. The documents were discovered in November 2022 by the president’s attorneys.

Hur concluded that “no criminal charges are warranted” despite the investigation determining that “President Biden willfully retained and disclosed classified materials after his vice presidency when he was a private citizen.”

Hur said the classified documents included materials relating to the military and foreign policy in Afghanistan. The special counsel said the evidence did not establish guilt beyond a reasonable doubt and “innocent explanations” for the documents could be contended in court. Hur also said a jury might be sympathetic to the president because of his age.

We have considered that, at trial, Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” Hur wrote.

Biden won’t have to go to court as former President Donald Trump has in his legal defense of retaining classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida upon exiting the White House. However, the special counsel’s findings are nonetheless damming to the president’s reelection.

2024 Odds Lengthen

Following the Hur report being made public, Biden’s odds of securing another four-year term lengthened.

On Smarkets, a UK-based sports betting exchange that facilitates political wagering, Biden’s implied chances of winning in November were about 36% before the Hur disclosure. Following the bombshell report, the president’s odds tumbled to an implied chance of 25%. They’ve since recovered to 29%. Trump is the betting front-runner at 46%.

Hur said the president “did not remember when he was vice president” or “when his son, Beau, died.” Biden held an impromptu press conference following the Hur report’s publication where he expressed anger toward the special counsel.

How in the hell dare he raise that?” Biden told reporters during a Thursday night press conference. “Frankly, when I was asked the question, I thought to myself, it wasn’t any of their damn business.”

NBC News, however, reported this week that Justice Department sources claim Biden — not Mur — was the one who brought up his son’s death.

Biden Replacement

The president is 81 years old. When he took office at 78, he was the oldest president by nearly eight years. Trump is the second oldest president, as he took office in January 2017 at 70.

Speculation is running rampant as to who the Democrats might bring in as their 2024 candidate if Biden decides not to seek reelection.

The leading contenders are thought to be former First Lady Michelle Obama and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Their implied 2024 odds on Smarkets are respectively 8% and 5%.

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